Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa

Aim Africa is expected to face severe changes in climatic conditions. Our objectives are: (1) to model trends and the extent of future biome shifts that may occur by 2050, (2) to model a trend in tree cover change, while accounting for human impact, and (3) to evaluate uncertainty in future climate projections. Location West Africa. Methods We modelled the potential future spatial distribution of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest in West Africa using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). We used climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: (1) reduce inter‐model variability, and (2) describe trends extracted from different GCM projections. Results The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the desert by an area of 2 million km². While savannas are predicted to contract in the south (by 54 ± 22 × 10⁴ km²), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to expand (64 ± 13 × 10⁴ km² and 77 ± 26 × 10⁴ km²). However, uncertainty due to different GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen biome shift. Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%). Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the direction of the projected change from increase to decrease. Main conclusions Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes) show a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change and human impact in order to generate realistic future tree cover projections.     

The steroidal glycoalkaloid α-tomatine

The literature relating to chemical, biochemical and biological aspects of the steroidal glycoalkaloid, α-tomatine, is reviewed. The alkaloid, which can be used as a starting compound for the synthesis of steroidal hormones, is toxic to a wide range of living organisms. The significance of tomatine to plants which elaborate it is discussed and some possible uses of the compound are mentioned.     

The use of breeding sites of Tilapia congica (Thys & van Audenaerde 1960) to delineate conservation sites in the Lake Tumba,Democratic Republic of Congo: toward the conservation of the lake ecosystem

To guide the zoning process in Lake Tumba, Democratic Republic of Congo, breeding sites of Tilapia congica were studied. Physical metrics measured were: nest depths, exposure to sun rays, distance from the edges, site spreads, and habitat types. Mean nest depth = 0.23 m ± 0.08 (SD), range = 0.04–2.2 m (n = 553 nests); 100% (n = 70 sites) sites were exposed to the sun and the polynomial regression analysis showed 90% sites were within the range 51–250 m from the lake shores (y = ?1.7143x² + 10.371x? 1.8; R² = 0.597, n = 70 sites), with 60% clumped within the range of 51–150 m, indicating a relationship between nesting sites and the distance from edges. The largest group spread group was 300 m, and among the four breeding sites identified, one was ～10 km long, meaning a zonal spatial spread ∏ = 300 ha and a core reproduction zone ∏′ = 100 ha. T. congica built 87.30% of their nest in habitats where Hippo grass Vossia cuspidata (48.20%) and Water lily Nympheae stellata (39.10%) dominated. T. congica shared 41.81% of its nesting sites with other fish species, leading to the conclusion that protecting the species habitats would provide the umbrella for the conservation of other species.     

Halobates collected during the circumnavigational expedition 'Operation Drake'

Samples of marine pleuston were collected from the sea-surface along considerable sections of the track of Eye of the Wind during its 2-year circumnavigational expedition 'Operation Drake' from November 1978 to October 1980. One hundred and eleven of the tow samples contained insects of the genus Halobates . They were assigned to four oceanic species: H. micans, H. sericeus, H. germanus and H. splendens; two coastal species: H. maculatus, H. princeps, and one undescribed species. Various development stages of the oceanic species were found. The locations, time of collection and surface temperatures where sea-skaters were collected are tabulated. Distributional boundaries and population densities of the oceanic species collected are discussed.     

Fungal endophyte communities in above- and belowground olive tree organs and the effect of season and geographic location on their structures

Studies comparing fungal endophytes between above- and belowground woody crop organs and the factors that may structure their communities are lacking. Due to its great impact on the Mediterranean Basin, the olive tree was chosen for the isolation of endophytic fungi from roots, leaves and twigs in two seasons in north-eastern Portugal. Nine hundred seventy-six isolates belonging to 38 fungal species were obtained. Phomopsis columnaris, Fusarium oxysporum and Trichoderma gamsii were the most frequently isolated, collectively representing 69% of the isolates. Fungal diversity in the roots was higher than in the aboveground organs and higher in spring than autumn. Endophyte community similarity between the above- and belowground organs and between seasons was low. Species composition also varied spatially, with the fungal composition of the roots varying more among locations than that of the aboveground organs. Our results suggest olive tree endophyte community structure is affected by plant organ, location and season.     

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level.We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.     

A complex biogeographic history of diversification in Neotropical lancehead pitvipers (Serpentes,Viperidae)

Based on the literature, we had predicted that the diversification within the Neotropical snake genus Bothrops occurred along a latitudinal gradient from north to south, with diversification into unoccupied niches through ecological opportunity, not correlated with geoclimatic events. Using a dated phylogeny and estimating likelihoods of ancestral states at cladogenesis events, we reconstructed ancestral areas and assessed major events of the diversification of Bothrops clades, and we also discuss systematic implications for this group. Based on the phylogeny we produced, B. lojanus was not considered as part of the genus Bothrops since the results recovered this species nested within the Bothrocophias clade. We infer that the diversification of the Miocene Bothrops pictus and Bothrops alternatus clades may be related to the uplift of the western slopes of the Andes and the Argentinian Patagonian Andes, respectively. The Pliocene Bothrops taeniatus and Bothrops osbornei clades may be related to the uplift of the eastern and northern Andes, respectively. The Plio-Pleistocene Bothrops neuwiedi clade may be related to the habitat transitions from a warmer and forested environment to a cooler and open landscape; the Bothrops jararaca (i.e. island endemic species) and Bothrops lanceolatus clades to over-water dispersal with island speciation; and Bothrops atrox clade to the appearance of the Panamanian land bridge. We found that a multitemporal and multidirectional history of diversification may be correlated with geoclimatic and dispersalist events. We argue that the vacant niche hypothesis by itself does not explain Bothrops diversification.     

Do functional traits offset the effects of fragmentation? The case of large-bodied diurnal lemur species

Primates worldwide are faced with increasing threats making them more vulnerable to extinction. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat degradation and fragmentation, are among the main concerns, and in Madagascar, these issues have become widespread. As this situation continues to worsen, we sought to understand how fragmentation affects primate distribution throughout the island. Further, because species may exhibit different sensitivity to fragmentation, we also aimed to estimate the role of functional traits in mitigating their response. We collated data from 32 large-bodied lemur species ranges, consisting of species from the families Lemuridae (five genera) and Indriidae (two genera). We fitted Generalized Linear Models to determine the role of habitat fragmentation characteristics, for example, forest cover, patch size, edge density, and landscape configuration, as well as the protected area (PA) network, on the species relative probability of presence. We then assessed how the influence of functional traits (dietary guild, home range size) mitigate the response of species to these habitat metrics. Habitat area had a strong positive effect for many species, and there were significantly negative effects of fragmentation on the distribution of many lemur species. In addition, there was a positive influence of PAs on many lemur species’ distribution. Functional trait classifications showed that lemurs of all dietary guilds are negatively affected by fragmentation; however, folivore-frugivores show greater flexibility/variability in terms of habitat area and landscape complexity compared to nearly exclusive folivores and frugivores. Furthermore, species of all home range sizes showed a negative response to fragmentation, while habitat area had an increasingly positive effect as home range increased in size. Overall, the general trends for the majority of lemur species are dire and point to the need for immediate actions on a multitude of fronts, most importantly landscape-level reforestation efforts.